hello, everyone.

>> i'm told as an indicator -- >> reporter: piers, here we go. >> breaking news, here we go. >> we have some results. we'll start with congress.

for congress, we have six votes for charlie bass. one vote for macia, and three votes for custer. for governor, we have seven votes for lamontagne and three votes for hassan. for president, this has never happened before in dixville. we have a tie. five votes each. >> reporter: you know what, piers? new hampshire, the polling has shown just how tight this race is.

piece of history. never been a tie before in the history of this tiny town. ten people voting. this surely is a close race. >> reporter: that's right. and there's also a subtext to this. you notice we have five independent voters here, clearly barack obama got more votes from the independents than governor romney did. but we cannot look at this and determine that there's going to be any kind of friend here. these are just ten votes out of over 700,000 cast in this state. so at this point, it's just again for bragging rights for dixville notch that they are indeed the first in the nation. >> and it's worth reminding that in 1960 apparently, richard

nixon defeated congressman john f. kennedy 9-0 in dixville notch. that didn't work out for him in the long-term. so it may not be an indicator. but what a moment of history. dixville notch records its first-ever tie in what many say will be the closest race we've had in a very long time. president obama has made his final appeal. mitt romney will still campaign, but now it's in the hands of american voters. welcome to all of you. >> thank you. >> a moment of history there. the first-ever tie in dixville notch at the start of the election. what do you make of that, charles? >> are you going to start with me? >> i don't know what i just saw. it's like ten votes. it's fantastic, it's nice and sweet. but i don't think it tells us very much, if anything about tomorrow.

and like you said, at the end of the piece, it's 700,000 votes that will be cast in new hampshire tomorrow. i don't think, though, it will be quite as close as people think it will be. what we've seen in the national polls and also in the state polls is a little bit of an uptick for obama. i think that the democrats are cautiously optimistic about tomorrow. and mitt romney is hoping that everything breaks in his favor. but that's a long shot. it's a real long shot. so i think at this hour, going into tomorrow, the democrats have a little bit of wind at their back. >> ben smith, what i thought was interesting about that result in dixville notch, the reality is, all the independents had voted for barack obama and not mitt romney. is that an ominous sign for mitt romney? >> i'm not sure i want to read a whole lot into that. i think the absolute nightmare scenario for this election is

what you just saw there, something close to a tie, something that does not resolve tomorrow and that is something that is something both campaigns are genuinely worried and it would not be good for the country. >> charles, let's play a clip of president obama in his final campaign speech. this is the last time we'll see one of the great political campaigns in modern american history do his stuff. watch a bit of this. >> i want to thank you. you took this campaign and you made it your own and you organized yourself, block by block, neighborhood by neighborhood, county by county.

starting a movement that spread across the country. a movement made up of young and old, rich and poor, black and white, native american, gay, straight, democrats, republicans who believe we've all got something to contribute. >> i thought it was a fantastic speech. but what i was left again with, if barack obama loses this on a knife edge, as he still could possibly do so, you would have to say where has that passion been earlier in this campaign. charles, where has it been? this is not the obama we saw in the first debate for example. why has he been waiting so late to unleash the obama we all fell in love with in 2008? >> i think that part of it is that barack obama responds to energy and i think that now that it's getting down to the wire, he's responding in kind to the energy that he's feeling from voters, from people in the

rallies and it's like kind of basketball analogies where somebody pulls it out in the clutch every time. he kind of has that part of him where you may not necessarily be there when you think he should show up and do what you know he's capable of doing. but he does come around to giving you that fire. i think what you're seeing tonight, i watched both me and mitt romney tonight, and there's a stark difference in their personas. the way that they're speaking tonight. barack obama sounds very much engaged and fired up and mitt romney does not have the fire in the gut in the speeches he's giving tonight in the closing of this campaign. that will make the difference for a lot of people who are -- the fence sitters who are saying

i didn't have enough information. at this point, you're not going to have enough information. you're going to go with your gut at this point. >> i think that's a good point. let's bring in carol roth. carol, governor romney made a pretty good speech but it didn't have the kind of firebrand impact of obama's last speech tonight and i agree with charles. i think it matters. it's all about demeanor and how you're looking in the latter stages that can send it over the edge for the independents in particular. >> you know, i think that the momentum has already been had here, and i think most people at this point have made up their mind. i don't know that these last-minute speeches are going to be everybody over the edge. what i think is going to happen is 2012 is the year of the underdog and i do not care what these polls are saying or what the predictions are. every single prediction that's been made in this race thus far has been completely wrong. i sat here with you during the primaries and we saw michele bachmann, rick perry, newt gingrich and rick santorum all be crowned somebody who is going

to get the nomination for the republican party. didn't happen. nobody picked paul ryan. nobody knew the momentum was going to swing on the first debate. so all we can do is expect the unexpected. i think that stay tuned, it will be very anti-climatic for this to go as planned. >> ben smith, where do you think the real battleground will be? a lot of people are talking about ohio, pennsylvania, florida. the democrats still saying it could not go romney's way, all these things could be pivotal to how the election washes up. where will you be focused tomorrow night? >> look, mitt romney has -- obama has a lot of paths to victory. romney has very few. they will be states like virginia, florida. if obama wins those states,

pretty much over. romney needs to run the table and do well in ohio and pennsylvania. those are must-wins for him. >> charles, when you look at both campaigns from start to finish, what do you think has run the better campaign? >> i think that this campaign has been what most campaigns are, a series of ups and downs for both sides, and so there have been some performance issues and the first debate was a performance issue for barack obama. what mitt romney has not been able to do has been to get enough momentum to ever get himself over a hump and get shooting himself in the foot either by things coming out he didn't time or saying things in realtime that did him real damage. so mitt romney was never able to take advantage of a bit of momentum and ride that to a

leading position over barack obama. and i think that -- at the end of the day, that will be a real issue that republicans will look bat and say we did not put forth the best candidate to run against barack obama in this election. >> carol, do you agree with that? >> i do not agree with that. mitt romney is the best candidate to run against barack obama. but i do have to give props to the obama campaign. the fact that he's still in it given what's going on with the economy and the financial situation in this country means that he's run a very, very good campaign. i think at the end of the day, emotions went out, viewers and voters were all tuned into their favorite radio station, which is wii f.m. and the emotion will drive these final results and that's why mitt romney will win. >> let's get to a prediction. ben smith, who is going to win and what will the margin be? >> the polls -- if you leave the polls, barack obama will win.

if mitt romney wins, it will be because something was very wrong with lots of polls. >> charles? >> i agree. it has to be that the polls are completely wrong. if the modeling is right and the polls are right, barack obama has the edge to win tomorrow. >> carol? >> the modeling is not right. garbage in, garbage out. mitt romney wins. >> do you really believe that? >> i do. >> i'm sort of backing everything on nate silva. i've grown to be very fond as a pollster. he studies more of the data on these polls and he's taken obama tonight with 91% probability. >> wait, all he does is averages polls. so that assumes that the modeling and the inputs are correct. if the assumptions aren't

correct, his modeling can't make the prediction. i think the assumptions aren't correct. >> the great news is we're going to find out now, because it's been going on now for it feels like almost as long as i've been alive. when we come back, a man who has been hyper critical of president obama, newt gingrich. if you're willing to work with me again and knock on some doors with me and turn out, we tomato basil, potato with bacon... we've got a lot of empty cans. [ male announcer ] progresso. you gotta taste this soup.

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plus get this document shredder free-- but only if you act right now. call the number on your screen now! if you're willing to work with me again and knock on some doors with me and turn out, we will win ohio. we'll win this election. we'll finish what we started. we'll renew those ties that bind us together and reaffirm the spirit that makes the united states of america the greatest nation on earth. >> president obama firing up a crowd of supporters as he hits his crucial battle ground states on the final day of the campaign. joining me now former house speaker newt gingrich. welcome for our last encounter before this election that seems to have been gone on for about 30 centuries.

>> it has been a long marathon, but i think it's the american process and it's a pretty good way to vet people who want to be president. >> when you see barack obama on fire, as he has been the last few days campaigning at his best, do you feel slightly fortunate that you're not the guy that doesn't have to beat him tomorrow? >> oh, no, i would have loved to have debated him. the first debate was probably one of the most one-sided debate in 50 years. so if mitt wins tomorrow, he will have earned it. but it would have been fun and i would have loved to have offered an alternative vision to the up employment, high cost of gasoline and total chaos in benghazi that the president offers. >> where do you think we could be in for some shocks tomorrow specifically?

>> i think we have two parallel universes that are very, very different. you have an elite universe captured in the polls and much of the news media which assumes that barack obama will get re-elected, which in one national poll for example had the race tied but on 11% advantage for democratic turnout which is three points higher in 2008, which is something that no one thinks is possible. then you have those of us, karl rove, dick morris, joe gaylord, myself, who have been at this a long time, we believe with high unemployment, high price of gasoline, the mess in benghazi, and the fact that i don't know a single mccain voter who has switched to obama, but i know a lot of obama voters who switched

to mitt romney. so my guess -- i said openly, i think that romney is going to win. but i think there are two parallel universes competing right now over the nature of america. >> if mitt romney loses, and it's very, very close, but if he does lose, where do you wish he had gone harder that may have guaranteed victory? >> i can't comment until we see the returns tomorrow night, just because you're asking me a question that we'll have to see what close it is and the circumstances. i love the fact that he's campaigning in pennsylvania. i know that -- i was born in harrisburg. i know that the rally he had last night in bucks county was historic. going back into pittsburgh tomorrow is very gutsy and exactly right. i think we're probably going to pick up the u.s. senate seat in pennsylvania. people forget, they say this is a democratic state. it's got a republican governor, one of the two senators is a republican, a majority of the house is republican. both the house and state senate are republican. there's likelihood he will carry

pennsylvania. but in ohio, i think we're going to carry ohio. i'll give you one example, piers. in southeastern ohio is coal country and is very conservative with belief in god, right to bear arms. the democratic early voting in those counties are votes for romney. yet if you look at the various analysis, they're taking democratic turnout in ohio as though it's all going to be for obama. this is right next to west virginia, where a convicted felon sitting in a texas prison got 40% of the democratic presidential primary vote against obama. those are romney votes, not obama votes and romney going to pittsburgh is going to resonate

all along that ohio river valley tomorrow. >> the problem it seems to me has been forced by hurricane sandy, which caused many problems for many people of a very real nature. in relation to the politics, it certainly stopped mitt romney's momentum firmly in the tracks for a week because he couldn't get on television and allowed barack obama to be a president for a week in a time of crisis and did it very well. in fact, chris christie raced to laud him. nate silva, that genius pollster of pollsters from "the new york times" just tweeted this, a few more polls to add, but obama at 91% to win the electoral college based on all the data to date. he noticed there's been a clear shift toward obama in national polls based on the most recent data, he may lead by 2% in the popular vote too. that's the first time over 90%

and i think the first time he said that obama will comfortably win by 2% in the popular vote. what do you say to that? >> first of all, piers, you asked me about -- here's an alternative universe. you say this person of "the new york times" has come to the startling discovery that in "the new york times" universe, obama is going to win. i point out two of the polls that came out today, rasmussen has romney up by one, gallop has romney up by one. the james carville rule is, incumbents get the last poll, that would mean a 52-48 victory. i think it's bigger than that. my guess is 53-47 or more. but let's look at what happened in new jersey or new york. i think if the vote had been on friday, obama peaked on friday out of sympathy. now we've had saturday and sunday and monday for people to realize, remember, the government that is failing on staten island is the government obama wants to deliver health

care. so i think you're go fog see a lot of people vote against a failed government as they watch the mess in the northeast. >> mr. speaker, it's been great talking to you for the last 18 months. we've had a lot of ups and downs but always entertaining and interesting. i wish you and your party all the very best tomorrow night. >> thank you. coming up, one of the most powerful men in hollywood, harvey weinstein. it's so mmm you might not believe it's a hundred calories. new yoplait greek 100. it is so good.

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we have actual intelligence about high value terror targets that president musharraf will not act, we will. >> i think barack obama is confused as to who are our friends and who are our enemies. we do not say to a nation which is working with us that we intend to go in there and put on a unilateral attack. >> one of the biggest moments in the obama presidency, taking down osama bin laden. harvey, how are you?

>> nice to see you, piers. >> i know you're in hollywood. i watched your movie over the weekend and found it entertaining. and quiet overtly political in the most magnificent propaganda style way. you did this clearly to remind everybody that is about to vote what a hero barack obama is, right? >> i didn't have to do anything to remind anybody about the decision that barack obama made to pull the trigger on osama bin laden. so amazing to listen to john mccain, because he and mitt romney were both against going into pakistan to kill osama bin laden. when they say that al qaeda hasn't been weakened by killing osama bin laden, you know, i don't understand what alternate universe they're living on. and the clip of mitt romney, which was in the film was cut on national geographic, which did record ratings last night. but now this movie is on netflix

and you can see it with the clip that you just showed on the air. >> tell me about your view of the election, harvey. lots of polls flying around. you're used to all these. how seriously do you take them? what are you feeling on the ground? are you still a bit nervous the vote may not come out tomorrow? >> you know, i voted for george pataki and rudy giuliani and michael bloomberg and i think it's interesting now that a lot of republicans i know over the last few months have seen inconsistencies in mitt romney's economic plan. as a business plan, i run a big-sized company. when you see there's no plan, he keeps on talking about a plan and you read the plan and there's nothing there, it's gotten people worried. michael bloomberg is one of the wealthiest men in the world. warren buffett is the second wealthiest man in the world. they are both against mitt romney.

general powell, when you talk about the military, i have to laugh. i love politics. they're brilliant actors. i could have john mccain star in any movie. these guys are the best actors. i'm getting rid of brad pitt and george clooney tomorrow. i can get john mccain much cheaper. but rudy giuliani said president obama should resign because we only had 1.4% growth. they're just making this stuff up. colin powell, the best military genius of our time, loves him. he's killed more terrorist in

his short watch than george bush did in eight years. he's the true hawk. >> we'll see if the public agree with you tomorrow, harvey. you've got three movies at the moment. "killing them softy" with brad hit and two others. you've sounded yourself with the best looking men in hollywood. it is time you get some politicians so you emerge as the best looking guy in the group. >> next year, mitt romney will be up employed. i think he should play any one of those roles. i think he could do a comedy, though. >> i'm always available, harvey. good to talk to you. best of luck to you and your party. may the best man win. >> thank you, piers. a pleasure to be on this side of the camera. coming up next, battleground wisconsin. will the governor who survived a recall be able to put mitt

romney over the top?

president obama kicking off his last full day of campaigning in wisconsin this morning. even enlisting the help of bruce springsteen. joining me now is governor scott walker. how are you? >> piers, good to be with you. i'm out with eat great crowd behind me, ready for paul ryan. >> i see. i'm hearing lots of different polls tonight. all the republicans telling me mitt romney has it in the bag. all the obama people telling me, no, the president is going to walk it. what is the reality? you're in the area of america that could be utterly crucial. how are you seeing wisconsin, ohio, iowa, that kind of collection tomorrow night, how important will these be and which one could be the turning point? >> all across the midwest, it's incredibly point.

i was just in ohio the other day with mitt romney. i've been in iowa about a week ago with the governor there. there's huge excitement. but here in wisconsin, we had a recall six months ago today. we won by a bigger margin than we did two years earlier. you see the momentum. you saw it in august when paul ryan was added to the ticket and you really saw it in the first debate in denver when people across the country came out to support mitt romney. it's going to be that close, but we're going to win here in wisconsin and other places across the midwest. >> we're certainly seeing very enthusiastic crowds turning out for mitt romney. barack obama is also whipping up his crowds, although not quite in the same numbers he enjoyed in 2008. and the real issue for him is, how can he get his vote out in the same numbers.

is that really what you guys are relying on, his vote not turning out in that kind of degree? >> well, it's definitely about turnout. you have two consecutive polls here in wisconsin, 49-49. it's ultimately about turnout and the undecided voters out here. we're here in milwaukee, a very reagan-democrat area. contrast the president was in madison, one of the most liberal cities in all of america today, and he had a fraction of the crowd he had four years ago. he had about 18,000 people in madison today with bruce springsteen. there's about 4,000 people in here, there will be a lot more in here before paul ryan gets here. >> governor, good to talk to you. enjoy your evening. >> what's that? >> i said, it's good to talk to you. you're being drowned out by your fans, clearly. >> it's pretty loud here, but we

know people want leadership and someone that can get the job done. mitt romney has got a state with a balanced budget and he brought democrats and republicans together. that's what americans want and what we want hear in wisconsin. >> governor, thank you. >> good to be with you, piers. thanks. the battle ground in ohio, joining me now is former governor ted strickland. welcome to you, sir. >> good to be with you. >> the promo for our show tonight walls ohio, ohio, ohio. as if almost nothing else mattered. do you think it could all come

down to ohio tomorrow night? >> it could. i don't think it will, piers. i think the president will win other battleground states that are crucial to a victory. but certainly here in ohio, over the last four months, mitt romney has never held a lead. the president has always maintained a relatively small but a very consistent lead in ohio. and i see nothing that's changed that in these last few hours. so i think ohio is going to end up in the obama column and consequently, i think he will be re-elected to a second term. >> we had the huge storm that hit the east coast. there's no doubt looking at the polls you can see that the president's opportunity to be a president for that week has helped him and damaged mitt romney. it's one of the events that can hit anybody in a campaign. how significant do you think

it's been, hurricane sandy and the way that played out for both sides? >> as far as ohio is concerned, i think the president has had and has maintained, as i said, a consistent lead for a variety of reasons. first of all, the auto rescue and quite frankly, i believe when governor romney just recently said that toledo was going to be losing jeep jobs to china, i think that was so misleading and was condemned by the auto companies, by jeep and later, you know, he got a strong rebuke from chrysler as well as gm. so i think that said to ohioans this guy doesn't apparently understand what's really happened in terms of the auto industry and its important to ohio, how many jobs have been saved and created, how much investment has been made. in ohio over the last three

years, 34% of all private sector investment has been in the auto sector of our economy. that's a big deal in ohio, as it should be, because it's so important to us. >> do you wish the president had been bolder in other areas of the economy in ways that he was with the auto industry? there he was dynamic and bold, the say kind of bold obama we saw when he went after bin laden. in other areas, he's shown timidity. >> well, you know, i think the president walls bold when he made sure that we got health care coverage past. that was a courageous thing to do. democratic presidents across the decades have tried to get that accomplished and they've failed. but it was this president who early on, in his administration,

said we're going to do this and he got it done. the passage of the recovery act, which has been so important to ohio and other states as well. i mean, there are men and women working in ohio today on infrastructure projects because of the stimulus bill, is so-called recovery act. so the president came to office under the most difficult of economic circumstances. we all understand that. unprecedented. when people criticized the president for the slow growth of the economy, i think they are failing to recognize the abyss we were headed toward. >> it wasn't unprecedented. fdr inherited a worst situation, and he had a grandiose plan. and the argument i hear about president obama, what is his great plan to get this country going? >> these are different times, obviously. and fdr had a different kind of congress to deal with.

and this president, quite frankly, has run into a brick wall when he's tried to get a lot of things done in terms of job creation. his jobs bill languished in the congress because the republican leadership decided they are not going to cooperate with this man. i hope after this election is over, i hope that tomorrow night republican leadership will rethink their approach and work with this president during the next four years. >> i hope whoever wins it, they knock a few skulls around and get on with the business of getting america back on its feet. governor, thank you. >> great talking to you. thank you. when we come back, the women's vote, will it make the difference? my female political all-stars go toe to toe.

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before the 2012 election -- welcome to you both. >> thank you. >> let me start with you, alice. mitt romney has been on a roller coaster with women. start of the year, deeply unpopular because of the right wing positions he had. as he began to morph into

moderate mitt, he began to get momentum and peg back the gap with the president. now the gap has expanded again in barack obama's favor. what went wrong in the last couple of weeks? >> mitt romney has bridged the gender gap and it's because of his policies. women of this country are not monolithic voters. they want jobs and they're concerned about the debt that's passed on to their children. and they know that mitt romney is someone that will help to create jobs and his policies will cut down on the debt and put our nation back on a more sound economic footing. >> if he does win, mitt romney, are you looking forward to a romney administration? >> i don't think anyone woman is. >> well, he is. >> but i think women aren't. the gender gap has grown again because women realize they can't trust him.

with health care, with equal pay. so i think that's what we're seeing is that women are moving towards the president. he's been a great president for women's health care, for economic parody in this country. that's why the gender gap is so in favor of president obama. >> it is hard to trust mitt romney on these social issues. i wouldn't have a clue what he thinks about abortion at all. here is a guy until he was 47 was in favor of pro choice. then at 47, at my age, i feel ancient, and at my age he switched the other way completely and since then he's meddled with the exceptions and all the rest of it. if i was a woman, i would be like, what do you believe? >> he couldn't be more clear and he's made it clear, the romney-ryan ticket is pro life. they support life from conception to natural death. but to reinforce that message

that women are not monolithic voters, they're concerned about much more than the social issues. it's not just about getting free birth control or the social issues that the democrats and the liberals and i applaud cecile for getting in the political game, but she has to hear from women it's not just about free birth control. women want jobs and president obama is not creating them. we have 23 million americans, and unemployment is through the roof. >> what women don't want to hear is people like todd akin and richard murdoch banging on about rape in the most insensitive manner possible. am i wrong about this or does this cause offense to women? >> absolutely it's offensive. look, i would like to say mitt romney has no job creation history. he had one of the worst records in the country as governor.

his entire job creation theory was to take jobs overseas in the private sector. now he's saying i've been in ohio, iowa, i'm talking to women patients to planned parenthood, republican women, who say why is mitt romney saying he's going to get rid of planned parenthood? that's what women are concerned about. for women, access to health care, it is an economic issue. >> alice, final word to you. why would he want to get rid of planned parenthood? >> first of all, let me make an important point. when he left the governor's office, unemployment was 4.5%. but planned parenthood receives $500 million a year, easy money that can be cut from the budget. we don't need to fund abortions and birth control pills. that's $2 billion over four years. >> would you like to see

governor romney overturning roe versus wade? >> he supports life. he's very pro life and that's the way he will be the president of the united states. that's an important issue. but most importantly people are concerned about jobs and the economy and they trust mitt romney to fix that. >> the way you keep telling me it's all about jobs means i think quietly you know that the social issues have been a problem for him. >> absolutely not. i've been talking with women across the country and they're concerned about that. >> thank you both very much. the answers will all unfold tomorrow. when back pain slows you down,

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